Crude Oil Trading August 13th 2015

Thursday: August 13th, 2015

Crude Oil Trading … looking over the market this morning what I see is the market falling from the Pivot Point to S1 before the cl open outcry.

This price action started a little after 6AM CST and it’s about 5 minutes before the start of the crude oil open outcry. My trading thoughts still looking at that daily low on the charts set on March 17th of this year.

Trading Thoughts after open of the Crude Oil Market … right now thinking the market could retrace as high as 4322 which is 50% fib. retracement of price action. Anything below S1 4278 could see lower prices as well.

Trade #1 Attempting Long took 9 tick loss. Trade #2 Went Short the way I really wanted to see the market go … short crude oil from 4281.

Crude Oil Trading Market finally showing its hand and is approaching the March 17th price action low of 4241. What will happen when we reach this level? Dead Cat Bounce or a real hard price action drop?

Trade #1 Long was not to ignore the fact the market could have reached back to the pivot point on price action movement in the crude oil market before resuming its downward price pressure. I took a 1/2R stop loss on trade.

Trade #2 Short from 4281 … took 2 contracts on … recovered loss on 1st contract and placed 2nd contract into breakeven right above S1 … as I don’t want to see the crude oil market get anywhere near this level until we breach 4241 in crude oil.

Break through lows here …

Crude Oil Market Reaches down to 3P and moves below S2 for the second time … 10P on the Trading Day places the Crude Oil Market at 4124.

Crude Oil Market retraces back to the 200 Bar SMA on the tick chart here … in my humble opinion … we need to go back to this level (price action) to warrant any closing of any short positions.

In other words, what I have not seen on this downward price action pressure is any “blowoff” volume levels to warrant any sign of a bottom being in yet.

Sometimes … well actually all the time when you are trailing a winning trade with a profit stop you must be aware of possible short term resistance/support levels depending upon your profitable position …

What you have to expect is NOTHING goes straight up or down … and the Crude Oil Market is definitely known to retrace and cut back and forth on its eventual way to whatever level it is seeking.

We continue to hang out around S2 level on the trading day … I still have not seen any blowoff volume to warrant any buying opportunity in the Crude Oil Market to this point in time.

Due to time being in the trade, I have moved my protective profit stop down to 4239 or 2P on the trade at 11:25AM CST.

Is this too close? Perhaps, but I am good with this level, if prices go back there. The move could be over as no further price breakdown has been in the cards.

Right now the low on the trading day still remains at 4207 … on downward pressure I am looking for 7P to 10P down on this trade overall, which will bring the crude oil market down to 4187 to around 4124.

S2 Continues to Hold On for Dear Life …

Time in the trade has been a very long time today. I went short at 8:30AM CST at 4281. The market continues to battle at S2 for most of the day … look at this 5 min chart …

Finally a breakout down and even the first sign of blowoff volume as the buy stops get gunned and runned on the trading day … 12:52PM CST.

My profit target has been moved to 4155 on the trading day and I have moved my profit stop to 3P on the trading day now … 3P is located at 4218 (I am at 4219).

New Crude Oil Lows at 1:17PM CST now … still watching the market and trailing protective stop behind the trade.

 

Crude Oil Market made a new low then went back to S2 once again … I was finally taken out on my short entry at the 4217 on the chart above. What I thought … is time of day … either it wants to go down hard or it will settle around S2 again … this was after I saw the blowoff (skyscraper) volume.

 

Good Trading and God Bless,

David M. Knight
TradeCraze

P.S. TST Trading Combine Results.

About The Author

David M. Knight

I am a 30 Year Futures and Commodities Trading Veteran. In addition, I enjoy games of skill and chance like: poker, craps, blackjack and roulette. During my professional career, I have developed and implemented successful trading strategies and methods; along with winning systems in games of skill and chance. Join with me on our mutual journey together.