A Little Market Forecasting in Crude Oil Plus Trading from Tuesday, April 10th, 2012

Hello Traders,

I would like to take some time on today’s post to mention some key areas we are moving into on the Crude Oil Charts.  Now when it comes to forecasting, it is simply a calculated guess of where the market may go.  I make no promise the market will go anywhere.

This is not how I trade, but I do my own analysis, and I hope my analysis helps you understand the work that is involved to come to some degree of where the market may or may not proceed.

“This is the day the LORD has made.  We will rejoice and be glad in it.”        – Psalm 118:24, NLT

200 Bar Moving Averages:

Nothing is Perfect

Nothing is Perfect

Now nothing is perfect, but this sure looks like a market ready to test all these levels of trading now.

In other words, the short opportunity is looking a lot better than the long technically speaking at this point in time.

How far will this market go back down?

This is not for me to know, but the odds are pretty high we are very close to running all of the above levels on the Crude Oil Charts using current market conditions.

I would say it is rather safe to assume, if we go down we should retest the Weekly 200 Bar Moving Average and bounce.

And again, it is rather safe to say, if we fall further we should test the Monthly 200 Bar Moving Average and bounce there as well.

Lastly, we could go as far down as the Daily 200 Bar Moving Average and bounce.

When we go through all these levels one-time, then is when it gets interesting.  If there is a thing called easy money, then knowing where these numbers are on your charts can be an important overall consideration in your trading plan as we trade into them.

Wave Theory

Wave Theory

Personally, I believe you should look at the market as one big wave, with smaller waves.  This will help you understand market movement more clearly.

To see things a little more clearly, here is a forecast of a weekly price movement:  Weekly Forecast to back to $70 per Barrel?

Or to look at this another way:  Gann Fann Shows a Retracement Back to 82?

Regardless, of what happens the market will continue to move in waves.  It will not go straight up or straight down, although the market will go down about 3 times faster than it will go up.

So this means we could reach between $70 to $82 per barrel in a rather short period of time.  Instead of measuring the month in months to go up, you will measure the move coming down in weeks.

I hope this helps … bottom line … for any of this forecast to work … we will have to close under the 200 Bar Moving Average on the Daily Chart.

Johnny Carson Forecasting?

Johnny Carson - The Great Swami

Personally, I have no idea which way the market will go … I don’t have a crystal ball to look into the future.  I will continue to simply take trades which make sense to me as a day trader in the Crude Oil Market.

I like to use wave counts, and other various trading master techniques to make my trading decisions.  This is a market which will most likely trade to $100 per barrel overnight … then the fireworks will start!

We could possibly see some interesting movement after the Crude Oil Inventory Report tomorrow at 10:30AM Eastern time.  It was a surprise miss of 7 million barrels last week …

How can you miss 7 million barrels?  Did they forget to count Texas, or forget to carry the one?  🙂

I was able to capture 28 ticks on 4 trades today.  I was looking for $100.00 per barrel on my trading day.  (See Video Below)

April 10th, 2012:  200 Trades Chart

April 10th, 2012:  Trading Statement


Good Trading,

David ‘Tiger’ Knight

P.S.  April 10th, 2012 Trading Video



About The Author

David M. Knight

I am a 30 Year Futures and Commodities Trading Veteran. In addition, I enjoy games of skill and chance like: poker, craps, blackjack and roulette. During my professional career, I have developed and implemented successful trading strategies and methods; along with winning systems in games of skill and chance. Join with me on our mutual journey together.